Intercensal Life Tables Consistent with Population Projections

Jeronimo O. Muniz, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)

Intercensal methods have been broadly used to estimate mortality in developed and less developed countries with deficient or incomplete data. These methods have several advantages over indirect methods because they do not require the use of model life tables and provide sufficiently accurate results even in the presence of age distortions and death under-registration. The drawback of these methods, however, is that generated life tables do not provide projections of the initial population that are consistent with the subsequent enumeration. This article demonstrates these inconsistencies using three different methods and introduces a simple procedure to solve this inconsistency and to provide life tables that are accurate and compatible with projected populations. The empirical illustration demonstrating its efficacy draws on data from Vietnam, but the method can be extended to any context and time period.

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Presented in Poster Session 3