Estimating Domestic Migration by Demographic Characteristics in the United States: A Rate-Based Model Using Administrative Records

Caleb M. Miller, U.S. Census Bureau
Rachel T. Cortes, U.S. Census Bureau
Esther R. Miller, U.S. Census Bureau
Rodger V. Johnson, U.S. Census Bureau
Charles D. Coleman, U.S. Census Bureau

The U.S. Census Bureau develops domestic migration estimates by demographic characteristics (age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin) as part of the cohort component method of population estimation. Recently, the Bureau's Population Division conducted research aimed at increasing the geo-demographic reasonableness of domestic migration by demographic characteristics to enhance estimates' accuracy. The revised rate-based method, Characteristics of Internal Migration Project (CIMP), uses tax return records provided by the IRS to measure the geography and frequency of migration in conjunction with the U.S. Census Bureau’s Person Characteristics File (PCF), which provides the demographic characteristics of that migration. This paper describes CIMP, in data and form, as well as provides the results of applying this new methodology to 2001-2008 Census Bureau population estimates. Furthermore, this paper discusses current research into improving estimates of domestic migration using Medicare enrollment data for the population age 65 and older.

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Presented in Session 192: Data and Methods in the Study of Migration, Neighborhoods, and Urbanization